Thursday, February 28, 2013

SOUTH AFRICA BALANCE OF TRADE


South Africa recorded a trade deficit of 24526.70 Million ZAR in January of 2013. Balance of Trade in South Africa is reported by the South African Revenue Service. Historically, from 1957 until 2013, South Africa Balance of Trade averaged -130.23 Million ZAR reaching an all time high of 10327.90 Million ZAR in December of 2010 and a record low of -24526.70 Million ZAR in January of 2013. South Africa has been posting trade deficits primarily due to deterioration in commodities exports and high imports of fuel and high value added goods. The country is rich in mineral resources and is the world’s major exporter of chromium and platinum (8 percent of total exports). Other exports include: gold (8 percent), coal (6 percent), iron ores (7 percent) and motor vehicles and car parts (5 percent). Main imports are: fuel (24 percent of total imports), motor vehicles (10 percent), electronics (3 percent) and pharmaceuticals (2 percent). Main trading partners are Japan (10 percent of exports and 6 percent of imports) and Germany (7 percent of exports and 11 percent imports). Others include: United States, China and United Kingdom. This page includes a chart with historical data for South Africa Balance of Trade.


ALSI TRADERS TAKE NOTE


All traders trading the ALSI index future should take note of a material event that could have an impact on the value of the March 2013 Future. The FTSE/JSE quarterly index review is scheduled to be effective after close of business on Friday the 15th of March 2013. On this day the methodology for the calculation of the underlying Index to the ALSI future will be changed and the index will be recalculated after the market closes. This will impact directly on the valuation of all index futures and options with a March 2013 expiry.

We do not know how material this one time change in the future price could be as a result of these changes, but we are advising clients to be cautious when holding overnight positions on the 15th of March.  Due to this change in methodology Fund Managers might have to make adjustments to their portfolios which could have a huge impact on volumes traded in the underlying JSE shares making up the index. This could result in unexpected changes to the index price and the future prices.

Please click here to view the note from the JSE for more information.

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

PATTERNS DON'T ALWAYS REPEAT THEMSELVES

It is important to remember that patterns don't always repeat themselves in the exact way that they first occurred. That being said, here is a pattern that we spotted on the ALSI (Tradable Top 40 Index). 

Example 1 in this case is from March 2011 and shows what the price action was at the onset of the previous market correction phase. It was about a 5% drop, followed by a bounce back up and finally (what took a few months) a 14% correction. 

Example 2 simply shows that the same pattern is emerging. Will it repeat itself in the same way it happened in 2011? Only time will tell.

Monday, February 25, 2013

IS THIS THE BEGINNING OF A CORRECTION?

Rock Capital was featured in the Rapport and Sake24 this weekend, giving commentary on whether or not it is possible that our market is entering a correction phase. To read the article, please click here.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

IF IT'S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IT USUALLY IS




Fellow Investors,

We see a lot of investment schemes out there promising huge returns. Common sense will tell any investor that if they want high returns they MUST take high risk, although this is not always true. Have a look at some financial theory about the efficient frontier http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient_frontier

Please do not hand over your hard earned cash to snake oil salesmen. Rather check with the FSB for registration and how long they have been in business and ask for references etc etc.

Inflation plus 6% or +10% =12% to 18% per annum return, which is at the top end of the return spectrum. Inflation plus 3 is more the norm.

Some salesman will have you believe you can double your money every 6 months or year (they are proposing using gearing to buy property or other geared instruments) but will not tell you that you will lose more when interest rates rise to 15% (like at the end of the 90’s) and with rates as low as they are now, there is only one way they can go....up! When you buy property or bonds you make a capital loss when rates rise, because fewer people qualify for loans at the banks and as such the buying pool becomes smaller and bad debts start to rise as over geared investors cannot service their bonds. This will follow a glut of property to hit the market as everybody wants  to sell to get out of the vice grip hold of paying higher interest rates. If you want confirmation about this, do not ask the salesman, ask someone you trust that has seen at least 2 inflation and interest rate cycles. A salesman is called a salesman because he needs to sell you something.

Be very, very careful, invest into listed instruments, do not gear or take excessive risk, do not borrow money to invest, do not believe everything you hear – do you own research! And most important of all, work with registered financial advisors that have been around for a long time!  

We here at rock Capital have been around for a long time (since 2006) and I (Pierre van der Walt) started my career in the stock market in the early 90’s. We are a wonderful team of very competent and motivated investors and money managers and there is a very good reason we have been around for a long time. 

Some warning signs are a person changing jobs every 6 months, changing his company’s name every year (thing with these unlisted share peddlers, they are supposedly selling you shares that will list on the JSE in 6 months…blah, blah, blah…); check with the FSB at www.fsb.co.za click on FAIS in the top right hand corner and then choose “search for financial Services Providers”. Make sure that you are dealing with registered and competent people.

As the saying goes, if you can’t do you teach.

Stay safe
Your Rock Capital team

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

7 SIGNS SHOWING THAT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS GETTING BETTER


In his latest weekly note, Goldman Sachs Asset Management chief Jim O'Neill presents more evidence that the economy is getting better.
Since I last wrote a Viewpoint, we have seen considerable evidence of improving cyclical economic fortunes all over the world, especially the most up-to-date useful indicators. These include:

1. China’s “flash” January PMI at 51.5

2. The Euro Area “flash” PMI at 48.2, up from 47.2. I await the final one, as the flash implies some
further improvement in the periphery.

3. A further nice bounce in the German IFO to 104.2 with both current conditions and expectations
improving.

4. The US “Markit” PMI rising sharply to 56.1 in January, too.

5. A drop in US weekly job claims to a five-year low to 330k, against expectations for a rise after the
previous week’s sharp drop.

6. All of China’s official December data and its Q4 showing more evidence that the improving surveys
are having an impact. (Chinese GDP is now $8.2-8.3tr in size, with just another $900bn added last
year)

7. Japan’s latest Tankan survey showed a sharp improvement, with evidence that just the
announcement effect of Abe’s policies are helping.
Not all data points have been better, so one should not get overly carried away, and of note, the January US

Philly Fed was surprisingly soft, so the PMI at the end of the month will be very important to watch to see whether the Philly release was one of its occasional “rogues”. This discussion, of course, has to acknowledge that the UK isn’t part of the same world as the rest of us…

But what is coming through is what one might expect, based on the lead and leading lead indicators that talked about in December, adding to my suspicion – UK excepted – that the world will positively surprise this year.