Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Why is Oil ALWAYS on the news headlines?

"I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that." Thomas Edison, 1931

Now we might be in a spot of trouble – referring to the Iran sanctions imposed by America (supported by Israel) and the resultant rising crude oil prices as South Africa receives almost 25% of its oil from Iran, which is roughly 98,000 barrels per day.

How is the oil price determined? Simple economics – increased demand, same or decreased supply = increased price. Oil is a finite commodity and reserves are becoming all the more scarce.

So why the rise in oil price? Uncertainty with regard to supply based on the Iran crisis.

Possible Effects on SA consumers:

1) Increased Petrol, Diesel and Paraffin prices

2) This directly affects logistics service providers and increases their costs

3) Which in turn effects all consumer goods e.g. food, sports apparel, all industrial manufacturing will be affected because a rise in fuel will increase operational costs

4) Won’t the rise of costs have a direct impact on inflation and possibly lead to an interest rate hike

Has South Africa ever considered importing oil from other countries? Yes they have but the two closest oil producers in Africa, Nigeria and Angola are of little help. Nigeria’s Bonny Light Oil comes close to the specifications that our refineries can use, but Angola’s does not.

Solutions: Maybe its time you considered cycling to work? It would increase the fitness of the general South African and decrease South Africa’s shocking obesity figures (56% of women and 29% of men over 15 years of age). Isn’t it frightening how dependent the world is on one commodity.





Sources:

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/South-Africa-caught-in-fallout-from-increased-sanctions-against-Iran.html by John CK Daly of Oilprice.com

http://finance.yhaoo.com/news/oil-dips-g20-sees-130723426.html by Clare Hutchinson a MarketWatch reporter based in London

http://www.health24.com/dietnfood/Weight_Centre/15-51-2954-2955,25364.asp


Monday, February 27, 2012

PRO PICK - SILVER

With the 2011 roller coaster ride still fresh in most investors’ minds, the question for 2012 is: “So where can I invest while the markets recover and sort their problems out?”

Let’s go back to basics. Commodities are a very good basic investment. We especially like silver. The demand for silver exceeds the supply and is ever increasing. Uses for silver include electronics – silver is the best electrical conductor of all metals and used in conductors, switches, contacts and fuses. It’s also used in the medical industry. Silver is used for its purification attributes in products like wound dressings and other wound-care products, climate control system components, gowns, catheters, stethoscope diaphragms and other medical equipment.

And then there’s air travel – the dry lubricity of silver provides the margin of safety required in giant engines with high-speed parts. The risk of oil interruption and serious damage are reduced. Other uses include brazing and soldering, chemicals (silver is used in products like polyester textiles, mylar tape, and antifreeze coolant), solar panels (cannot be manufactured without silver), water purification, jewellery, batteries, cutlery, coins, etc.

Silver not only has a wide use but is also seen as a safe haven investment. The commodity is getting rarer while the demand is increasing every year. Growing demand with pressure on supply leads to a concluded higher price for this versatile commodity.

So how has silver performed over the past few years? Trading from just below $15 per ounce in February 2007, the commodity has spiked to $49.79 per ounce in April 2011 before pulling back to current figures of around $33.60 per ounce. Like everything else in the market, for every buyer there will always be seller. And yes, there are also some experts that are of the opinion that what has happened with palladium in 2001 will now happen with silver.

The palladium price touched a record high in January 2001 before industrial demand plunged more than 30% over the following two years. After the spike in April 2011, the silver price had also pulled back to its current levels. How much of this decline was due to a drop in demand is still unknown. The industry might be looking elsewhere for alternatives to silver, some have speculated.

There’s a lot of talk in the market that the silver price in 2012 will be the most volatile of all the precious metals. Due to the economic slowdown not much is expected from the industrial demand side making up about 52% of the total demand; the real interest for the next year will be in the investment demand side. Speculators and safe haven investors will probably contribute to most of the volatility.

In the South African financial markets (JSE) silver can be bought via an ETN (exchange-traded note). Standard Bank is one of the service providers that offer investors silver ETNs. The return on their silver ETN over the past 12 months was 29.56%, but as we know, future returns can never be based on past performance.

Some of the questions investors should be asking themselves when investing in silver are:

· How much of the silver price is “manipulated” by investment demand?

· How much of the silver demand will decline due to other alternatives found?

· How much of the silver demand will increase due to new ways to use it?

· How does the supply match the demand currently and forecast for the future?

· How many new mines will come on stream to add to current silver supply?

Balance in investment, like in life, is important. But perhaps investors need to go back to basics when reviewing their portfolios?



Finweek 1 March 2012 Page 36

Friday, February 24, 2012

UPCOMING EVENTS


This week's calender:

Monday 27 Feb
Bidvest publishes interim results
Bioscene Brands holds it AGM

Tuesday 28 Feb

Sun International publishes interim results
African Rainbow Minerals publishes interim results

Wednesday 29 Feb
Nedbank publishes annual results


Thursday 1 Mar

Spur Corp
publishes interim results
Trencor Limited
publishes annual results

Friday 2 Mar
Steinhoff International
publishes interim results
Petmin Ltd publishes interim results






Finweek 1 Mar 2012 Page 7

FRIDAY IS POSITIVE OPINION DAY

In the light of the Budget Speech there have been some very negative comments and feelings for investors in particular.

Look on the bright side –

We’re all feeling a bit concerned about the new Dividend Withholding Tax - but STC could also have been increased to 15% - don’t blame DWT! At least retirement funds are exempt from DWT! So it’s good news for investors.

Even thought the budget is targeting the high income earners / investment driven South Africans (increased Capital Gains tax, brokerage fees on financial transactions), one has to keep in mind the positive aspects for investors: Cross-border investment procedures are to be modernized for both investments in and out of South Africa in order to lower costs and overcome unnecessary barriers ; a proposal has been made that legislation be introduced with regards to local managers of foreign funds not to be involuntarily subject to worldwide taxation ; we still have an interest and foreign dividend exemption and measures will be put in place to assist all taxpayers in the saving process, which is a vital aspect that many South Africans have not been focusing on.

Also, our tax money is used as a portion of the budget for investment in infrastructure. Therefore your tax is not only expensed but actually capitalized into bricks and cement to create infrastructure that is fundamental to South Africa. A country greatly benefits from having good roads, airports, harbours and railways. Think big picture, think exports, think tourism, think opportunities! I’ve been to countries that have a very poor infrastructure and it’s very difficult and unpleasant to travel in a country that doesn’t focus on these basics.

Enjoy the well deserved weekend after a very interesting week in the markets, keep your eye on the blog – I’m off to the beach (us Capetonians only work on Friday mornings)!

Thursday, February 23, 2012

2012 Budget Speech

What’s relevant to us as investors:

Financial Sector Development

  • Proposals will be published for simplifying and modernising procedures for cross-border investments in and out of South Africa. After taking public comments, treasury recognizes that some of the barriers identified also apply to domestic investors; we intend to consult further to explore how we can lower costs and barriers to all investment in South Africa.[1]

Capital gains tax

  • With effect from 1 March 2012, the capital gains inclusion rate for individuals and special trust is increased from 25 per cent to 33.3 per cent, resulting in a maximum effective capital gains tax rate of 13.3 per cent (up from 10 per cent).
  • The annual exclusion amount applicable to individuals and special trusts is increased from R20 000 to R30 000 (the exclusion amount on death is increased from R200 000 to R300 000).
  • The primary residence exclusion is increased from R1.5 million to R2 million.[2]
  • The effect of these above amendments are that the highest effective capital gains tax rate applicable to:

o Individuals and Special Trusts are increased from 10% to 13.32%

o Companies are increased from 14% to 18.65%.

o Trusts from 20% to 26.64% [3]

Taxation of payments from a South African or foreign retirement fund

  • Anomalies relating to the taxation of lump sum and annuity payments from a South African or foreign retirement fund, as a result of the individuals’ tax residency status, will be considered during 2012/2013.[4]

Tax on financial transactions

  • South Africa has a financial transaction tax on securities transfers, at a rate of 0.25 per cent. It is proposed that the current exemption for brokers should be abolished. Transactions for the broker’s benefit will be taxed at a lower rate. The inclusion of financial derivatives in the base of the securities transfer tax is also under consideration.[5]

Local managers of foreign funds

  • Foreign investment funds often rely on the advice of South African fund managers in relation to African fund assets. This potentially raised the risk that such funds might be regarded as “effectively managed” in South Africa and therefore taxable here on their worldwide income and assets. It is felt that this risk has deprived local fund managers of foreign investment fund business and has caused such fund managers to relocate abroad in certain instances. It is proposed that legislation be introduced so that these funds are not inadvertently subject to worldwide taxation.[6]

Rationalisation of withholding tax on foreign payments

  • In the absence of any tax treaty protection, international investors are currently subject to a royalty withholding tax charge of 12% and, with effect from 1 January 2013, will be subject to an interest withholding tax charge of 10%. Along with the proposal announced in this year’s Budget speech for the dividends tax to be increased to 15% when it comes into effect on 1 April 2012, it is proposed that the withholding tax rates on royalty and interest income also be increased to 15%. It is also proposed that the procedures in respect of these respective withholding taxes be coordinated in a more streamlined manner.[7]

Dividend Withholding Tax

  • With effect from 1 April 2012, the Secondary Tax on Companies (STC) regime is to be replaced by a Dividends Withholding Tax (DWT) regime. In anticipation of this, the STC rate was lowered from 12.5% to 10%. Whilst dividends withholding tax was expected to be introduced at 10%, the 2012 budget unexpectedly proposed to introduce dividends tax at 15%. Section 64E of the Income Tax Act provides for a rate of 10% and it is unlikely that legislation to amend this rate would be passed by April 2012.
  • Foreign dividends are also taxed at the maximum DWT rate, subject to applicable exemptions or reduced rates.
  • The introduction of DWT is likely to see an increased administrative burden on both the taxpayer and companies but will bring South Africa in line with international best practice and is likely to make the country more investor–friendly.
  • It is important to note that South African corporates and retirement funds are exempt from DWT.
  • The corporate tax rate in South Africa is now finally simplified at a maximum of 28%. [8]

Interest and Foreign Dividend Exemption

  • The interest and foreign dividend exemption threshold has not been revised. The domestic interest income and foreign dividend exemption for the tax year 2012/2013 will remain unchanged at:

o R22 800 per annum for taxpayers under the age of 65,

o R33 000 per annum for taxpayers aged 65 years and older,

o R3 700 per annum of which is in respect of foreign dividends. [9]



[1] http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/national%20budget/2012/speech/speech.pdf

[2] http://deloitteblog.co.za.www102.cpt1.host-h.net/2012/02/20/south-african-budget-2012-budget-speech-facts-figures/

[3] http://www.oldmutual.co.za/markets/south-african-budget.aspx

[4] http://deloitteblog.co.za.www102.cpt1.host-h.net/2012/02/20/south-african-budget-2012-budget-speech-facts-figures/

[5] http://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/national%20budget/2012/speech/speech.pdf

[6] http://deloitteblog.co.za.www102.cpt1.host-h.net/2012/02/20/south-african-budget-2012-budget-speech-facts-figures/

[7] http://deloitteblog.co.za.www102.cpt1.host-h.net/2012/02/20/south-african-budget-2012-budget-speech-facts-figures/

[8] http://www.oldmutual.co.za/markets/south-african-budget.aspx

[9] http://www.oldmutual.co.za/markets/south-african-budget.aspx

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

UPCOMING EVENTS


This week's calender:

Tuesday 21 Feb
Super Group publishes interim results
Shoprite publishes interim results

Wednesday 22 Feb
Massmart publishes interim results
Imperial
publishes interim results
Growthpoint
publishes interim results
Blue Label Telecoms
publishes interim results
Budget Speech

Thursday 23 Feb
Mondi publishes annual results
Discovery publishes interim results
Truworths
publishes interim results
British American Tobacco
publishes interim results
Exxaro
publishes annual results

Friday 24 Feb
Northam Platinum
publishes interim results



Finweek 23 Feb 2012 Page 9

GREECE: A CRASH COURSE


















JANUARY 2001: Greece joins the euro after claiming its budget deficit was below the mandatory 3% - which it later admitted was not the case. Its euro membership helps the country to get cheaper credit, and public spending explodes.

OCTOBER 2009: as the global economic crisis wreaks havoc on Greece, the new socialist government announces that the budget deficit was in reality 13%, not 7% as was being reported. credit rating agencies downgrade Greek bonds, causing the cost of borrowing – and the cost of repaying debt – to rocket.

MAY 2010: The Eu and IMF announce a €110bn package to help Greece pay its debts. Private banks agree to give up some of the debt that Greece owes them. In return, the Greek government pledges budget cuts.

NOVEMBER 2011: Prime Minister George Papandreou resigns with resistance to the austerity cuts growing. Lucas Papademos takes over. Debt rescheduling talks with Greece's private creditors falter.

FEBRUARY 2012: after long negotiations, the Greek government agrees to a 22% reduction in the minimum wage, job cuts and smaller pensions to secure a second bailout from the Eu and IMF. Parliament approves the measures amid civil unrest, but Eu leaders are now pushing for more cuts before it will give the money.







FINWEEK 23 FEBRUARY 2012 Page 7


Monday, February 20, 2012

Reality check - are you ready for 2012?

By Matthew Lester, Professor of Taxation Studies at Rhodes Business School, Grahamstown

January 2012.

The Subprime Crisis and the Global Credit Crunch may be two years gone. But the aftershocks will no doubt continue through 2012. Hopefully, a year from now, the world will be on a steady road to recovery. But that will depend on an orderly resolution of the European crisis.

If Europe does fall into a major recession the general concern is that it will drag down the world economy and even the new emerging economic powers of China and India will be affected. Finance minister, Pravin Gordhan has already made it clear that this would have severe consequences for South Africa.

In amongst this there is little talk about financial planning; except for those who try to second guess what surprises will be arriving in the National Budget on 22 February 2012.

But there is so much more to financial planning than the National Budget Speech. What about the basics?

Here is a list of basic financial planning basic processes and tips that need annual attention. Try them out and see where you may be falling short.

PART A

THE POPULAR OBVIOUS STUFF

1. Last Will and Testament

Last wills and testaments should be reviewed annually. The obvious reason is to make provision for changes in bequests. But there are other matters that require attention:-

  • Check who the nominated executors are. Are they qualified and will the nominated executors be accepted as being competent by the Master of the Supreme Court? What will the nominated executor charge?
  • Have estate duty and capital gains tax benefits, available through the ‘inter-spouse bequests and related abatements,’ been properly considered?
  • Has adequate provision been made for the administration and distribution of assets held offshore?
  • Will there be sufficient cash in the estate to provide for all costs, creditors, taxes and bequests?

But remember, the vast majority of us will still be here this time next year. Few South Africans will die with an estate duty problem during 2012. For most, the problem is rather, ‘how will I live, retire and die in the new RSA without landing on somebody else’s doorstep?’ That is the biggest challenge in financial planning today.

2. Retirement annuity contributions

Retirement annuity fund contributions remain tax deductible to the extent of the greater of:-

  • R1 750
  • R3 500 – pension fund contributions
  • 15% of Non Retirement Funding Income

The ‘capping’ of retirement annuity fund contributions at R200 000 per taxpayer, scheduled to take effect from 2013, seems to have been postponed at this stage.

At super-tax level (40% on taxable income greater than R580 000), a contribution to a retirement annuity fund effectively results in an investment acquired at a 40% discount. Nothing can match that! But there are other benefits:-

  • The investment growth within the fund is almost completely tax-free. And once the new dividend tax is implemented on 1 April 2012, dividend income will also be tax-free within a retirement fund.
  • Proceeds from the payout of a retirement annuity fund on death are exempt from both estate duty and capital gains tax.

Few taxpayers appreciate that the modern day retirement annuity fund can be legally used as a tax haven. Contributions thereto are encouraged by granting tax benefits and cannot be attacked as being overly aggressive tax planning practice.

Here is a useful rough and ready rule of thumb to remember during 2012:-

‘For every R6 000 per month required in retirement you will need R1 million of retirement capital!’

With the above in mind it is not difficult to conclude that few South Africans will ever accumulate enough to retire.

PART 2

THE LESS OBVIOUS STUFF THAT WE DON’T WANT TO TALK ABOUT

1. Tax Returns

The absolute D-Day for submission of tax returns for the tax year ended 28 February 2011 is 31 January 2012. No extensions will be granted. And the monthly fines for non-submission are automatically levied and are seldom waived.

Even if you think your tax returns are up to date ask for a SARS statement of account. Check that all returns are submitted and assessed and that there is no outstanding balance or refund due. You will simply sleep better with such assurance on paper.

2. Interest receipts

Let’s face it, with the world economy in tatters the prospects of increases in interest rates during 2012 are remote. Taxpayers will be lucky to achieve a pre-tax six percent return and that is about equivalent to the official inflation rate. After-tax interest rates are now well below the inflation rate.

Money left in interest bearing accounts is simply rotting away.

Investors have to take the view that to keep pace with inflation they have to create a portfolio with a heavy weighting towards equity investments. But professional advice should be taken before storming into uncertain world markets.

3. Rand Hedge Investments

Almost every South African is concerned about the future, the vulnerability of the Rand against other currencies and increased inflation rates.

The threat of losing substantial amounts of a portfolio as a result of a currency decline is probably the biggest investment risk South Africans face today.

Yet few South Africans create a proper Rand hedge in their investment portfolio.

Offshore investment is no longer the old sport of buying up Kruger Rands or ‘schlepping’ cash to an offshore bank box or trust. There are investment structures available through local institutions that are both legal and tax efficient.

Remember all South Africans, over 18 years old and of good tax standing, are entitled to invest up to R4 million per annum in offshore currencies. In addition, SA resident individuals may also use their single discretionary allowance (R1 million per calendar year) for foreign investment purposes.

4. Medical aid

Many medical aid members have no idea of what their medical aid covers, or more often, does not cover. Some are over insured and never claim. Others are hopelessly under insured.

Time well spent is to simply review the medical aid package on the internet. And, when in doubt, obtain professional help from the service providers when they visit the employer’s offices.

5. Life insurance requirements

Most South Africans simply rely on their employers’ Group Life Scheme. Most of these schemes provide a death benefit of two to four times’ annual salary. And the actual need ranges between eight and 12 times annual salary.

Talking life insurance is less popular than visiting the dentist. But it has to be done. The State will not provide the shortfall.

6. Disablity insurance cover

Many confuse death and disability insurance cover. Remember that surviving a disaster is far more expensive than dying. Again this needs comprehensive reassessment on an annual basis.

7. Short term insurance audit

Every South African either has too much insurance or too little. Some are insuring assets they no longer even own. Others have acquired assets they have forgotten to insure.

Contact your service provider and request a comprehensive assessment of assets and premiums.

8. Bank accounts and stop orders

Review your bank account and you will find:

  • Miscellaneous bank charges you did not know about.
  • Old stop orders, particularly on old cellphone accounts and short-term insurance policies that are no longer in use.

PART C

PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE

Property, property, property, lifestyle, lifestyle, lifestyle

South Africans own far too much property. It was all fine in the days when the holding costs of property were low, but those days are long gone.

During 2012 South Africans are going to face a barrage of increases in rates and taxes and fuel and electricity levies. RSA will probably introduce carbon emission taxes in 2013. These taxes, coupled with inflation and the ESCOM debacle, will probably result in the costs of keeping a household and commuting to work increasing by as much as 50% over the next two years. And after tax earnings will simply not keep pace.

For many South Africans their properties are literally eating their retirement savings and the time has come to downsize substantially. Yes, this is often a painful process, but for many it is fast becoming a process of survival.

The painful issues are going to include:-

  • Living in smaller properties, closer to work and school, or
  • Sharing bigger properties with retired parents or working children
  • Working from home more often
  • Holidaying closer to home
  • Use of smaller cars and appliances
  • Retiring later not earlier

Education, education education

Even if there is an orderly recovery of the world economy, retirement funding has suffered a tremendous setback over the past three years.

The lucky will be those who can recover enough between now and retirement. But even if they do, there will only be enough for them to support themselves.

Younger generations are going to have to become more self-sufficient. And the only way this can be achieved is through education and the resultant increase in earning power. The reward for sitting will be to sit.

Those still working, will have to accept that every effort must be made to continue working for as long as possible to allow retirement savings to recover. Again this can only be achieved through on-going education and keeping up to date with new technology.

Conclusion

The outlook created in this article is depressing. But the time has come for South Africans to realise that with 15 million people claiming social security grants out of a population of 50 million and a 25% unemployment rate, Government has priorities that extend far beyond looking after the 3,5 million taxpayers.

Yes, taxpayers are going to have to look after themselves. And the only way to achieve that is through comprehensive financial planning